Reborn Nuclear Arms Race Could Follow the Expiration of Last U.S.-Russia Treaty

On 5 February 2026, the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START), which limited the size of the russian and U.S. nuclear arsenals, will expire.

One of the leading U.S. experts on nuclear disarmament treaties and former official of the U.S. National Security Council, Steven Pifer, who participated in earlier talks with moscow on cutting its nuclear stockpiles, notes that the expiration of New START could provoke a new nuclear arms race.

It should be noted that New START, signed in 2010, is the only remaining pact binding moscow and Washington to freeze their arsenals at 1,550 deployed warheads each.

According to Steven Pifer, russian president vladimir putin proposed extending New START until early 2027, but with caveats. In particular, without the verification measures envisaged by the treaty. So, there would be less confidence that the sides are actually observing the limits.

When russia’s participation in New Start was suspended in 2023, russia halted inspections each side could conduct under the agreement.

According to experts from the Nuclear Threat Initiative, during these on-site inspections, American weapons experts could examine, close up, russian missile silos and submarines, as well as to physically count the number of reentry vehicles and warheads placed on each missile.

However, russia’s blocking of inspections means it could already have begun secretly loading more nuclear warheads into intercontinental ballistic missiles deployed in subterranean silos and into submarines. This possibility is also suggested by the U.S. Department of State, which in January 2025 noted that russia might have exceeded the New START limit on deployed strategic warheads.

A new nuclear arms race would negate decades of efforts toward nuclear disarmament and threaten the non-proliferation regime.

According to Forbes