How a Scientific Discovery Became a Mass Destruction Weapon

Since the end of the 19^th century, research into the properties of radioactive substances has led to a number of discoveries, among which X-rays were one of the most prominent. Radioactive elements were supposed to benefit humanity, but the invention of chain fission pushes nations to develop weapons of mass destruction. The impressive scale of devastation after the use of nuclear bombs in World War II fueled further development, and the Cold War between the US and the USSR began a veritable nuclear arms race that continues to this day. Thus, with the discovery of chain fission, a new atomic era began, but whether this invention brought more benefit than harm remains an open issue.

The history of the creation of nuclear weapons and their development

In 1938, Enrico Fermi received the Nobel Prize for “the demonstration of the existence of new radioactive elements formed by neutron irradiation and for the related discovery of nuclear reactions caused by slow neutrons”. Taking into account the discovery of the neutron by the British physicist James Chadwick in 1932 and artificial radioactivity by the French chemists Frédéric and Irene Joliot-Curie in 1934, the scientist created a series of experiments on bombardment of chemical elements with neutrons and during one such experiment, when thorium and uranium were irradiated, new elements were formed, hereinafter called transuranium. The term fission was first used by German physicists Lisa Meitner and Otto Frisch in 1939 when they described the breakup of a heavy nucleus into two lighter nuclei of roughly the same size. The conclusion that such an unusual nuclear reaction could indeed occur began an extremely intense and productive research period.

In 1939 Frédéric Joliot-Curie, Hans von Halban, and Lew Kowarsky discovered that several neutrons are released under uranium-235 fission, and this discovery led to the possibility of a self-sustaining chain reaction. Fermi and his colleagues recognized the enormous potential of such a reaction if it could be controlled. On 2 December 1942, they succeeded: scientists launched the world’s first nuclear reactor. This device consisted of an array of uranium and graphite blocks and was built in the campus of the University of Chicago.

In 1943, in the framework of the Manhattan Project, the Los Alamos Laboratory was created under the leadership of Robert Oppenheimer. The task of the project was to create the world’s first atomic bomb. As a result, three atomic bombs were developed: plutonium “Trinity”, uranium “Malyuk” and plutonium “Tovstun”.

Testing of the first atomic bomb, the Trinity, took place at 5:30 a.m. on 16 July 1945, at Alamogordo Air Force Base, New Mexico. And since the start of the project was considered successful, the US leadership immediately started looking for a real object to destroy.

It was not by chance that the Japanese city of Hiroshima was chosen for the first use of the atomic bomb. It has been a military center since 1868, and during World War II it housed the Headquarters of the Japanese 2^nd Army, which made it a potential target for the Allies. Hiroshima was founded as a castle city in the 16^th century, and the compactness of the city center was supposed to most vividly demonstrate the destructive power of the bomb. On 6 August around 8:15 a.m., a US Air Force B-29 bomber dropped the “Baby” atomic bomb on Hiroshima. Most of the city was destroyed, and the number of people killed immediately or shortly after the explosion reached 70,000 people. During the following decades, the number of deaths and illnesses due to radiation injury continued to increase.

On 9 August Japan had not yet surrendered and at 11:02 a.m. the second atomic bomb “Fat Man” exploded over the Urakami Valley, northwest of downtown Nagasaki. About 40,000 people were killed instantly and at least another 30,000 died of injuries and radiation poisoning by the end of the year.

After threatening to use a third atomic bomb on 14 August, the Japanese government accepted the Allied terms. The next day, Emperor Hirohito announced the surrender of Japan.

Subsequently, Hiroshima became the spiritual center of the peaceful movement for the prohibition of nuclear weapons. In 1947, the Atomic Bomb Consequences Elimination Commission (since 1975, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation) began conducting medical and biological research of the radiation effects in Hiroshima. A number of public hospitals and private clinics provide free treatment to victims of atomic bombing. Hiroshima Castle, destroyed during the bombing, was restored in 1957 and houses a museum of the city’s history.

Concepts Related to Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear weapons are weapons of mass destruction, based on an uncontrolled fission chain reaction of heavy nuclei and a thermonuclear fusion reaction. Accordingly, all nuclear warheads can be classified as nuclear and thermonuclear. Also, nuclear weapons should not be confused with the concept of a “dirty bomb” and shells with depleted uranium.

A “dirty bomb” is a mixture of explosives, such as dynamite, and radioactive substances. A “dirty bomb” cannot create a nuclear explosion like a nuclear weapon, although it can spread radioactive contamination in relatively small amounts and over a limited distance. The main hazard of “dirty bombs” is the explosion itself, which can kill or injure people.

Depleted uranium munitions have nothing to do with nuclear weapons or weapons with a nuclear component and do not pose a threat to the environment or human health. Depleted uranium is a by-product of the nuclear fuel production process. The ambient dose equivalent rate of gamma radiation from it is lower than from natural, specific activity is also lower, radiotoxicity is also lower.

Usually, the term “nuclear weapon” includes: actual nuclear warheads, means of their delivery to the target (missiles, planes, torpedoes, artillery guns, etc.), control means.

According to their purpose, the delivery means of nuclear weapons are divided into tactical (intended to destroy the enemy’s manpower and combat equipment at the front and in the nearest rear) and strategic (to destroy administrative, industrial centers and other strategic targets in the enemy’s deep rear).

Nuclear Potential

russia’s nuclear narratives, threats to use nuclear weapons, talks about placing russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus have led to new threats to the nuclear and radiation safety of the world, the destruction of the established safety system and non-proliferation regime.

According to the 2023 Yearbook of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the United States, russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) continue to upgrade their nuclear arsenals, and some of them deployed new nuclear weapons or weapons systems capable of carrying nuclear weapons in 2022. Although Israel does not confirm availability of nuclear weapons, researchers believe that the state is also engaged in the upgrading its nuclear arsenal.

Of the global stockpile of warheads, estimated at 12,512 warheads in January 2023, approximately 9,576 were held in military arsenals for potential use. This reflects an increase of 86 warheads from January 2022. Among these, 3,844 warheads were deployed on missiles and aircraft. Notably, around 2,000, the majority of which were owned by Russia or the United States, were on high alert. This designation implies that they were either mounted on missiles or stored at air bases where nuclear bombers are stationed.

China’s nuclear arsenal has increased from 350 warheads (as of January 2022) to 410 (as of January 2023) and is expected to continue to grow. The UK has not increased its nuclear arsenal in 2022, but following the UK government’s announcement in 2021 to increase the number of warheads from 225 to 260, it is expected that the UK arsenal may increase in the future.

Over the past year, France has continued its programs for the creation of a nuclear-powered submarine with ballistic missiles of the third generation and a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as for the reconstruction and upgrading of existing systems.

Obviously, India and Pakistan will expand their nuclear arsenals, since in 2022 both countries introduced and continued to develop new types of nuclear weapons delivery systems.

North Korea continues to pursue a military nuclear program as one of the most important elements of its national security strategy. Although North Korea did not conduct a single nuclear test in 2022, it did conduct more than 90 missile tests. Some of these missiles, including new intercontinental ballistic missiles, can carry nuclear warheads. According to SIPRI estimates, the country has about 30 warheads in its arsenal and enough fissile material to create another 50-70 warheads, which is significantly more than in January 2022.

Protective Measures

Today, relevant information on protective measures in case of nuclear weapons use is collected in the project “Reference. Info”, which was created by the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Policy of the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine with the aim of increasing citizens’ awareness of the most pressing issues of today and refuting fakes. The block “How to save yourself from a “dirty bomb”, a nuclear attack or an accident at a nuclear power plant”, which was prepared with the participation of SSTC NRS specialists, informs about actions in case a nuclear explosion caught you on the road, indoors or outdoors, about first aid to the victim, symptoms of radiation injury, etc.

So, if a nuclear weapon is used, there will be a bright flash in the sky, but you can’t look at it, because it risks burning the cornea, flash blindness and burning the eyes. You need to lie down on the ground and find a recess or ledge within seconds to hide from the shock wave and debris. To protect against burns and injuries, it is necessary to cover all exposed parts of the body: lie with your feet in the direction of the explosion, face down, put your hands under yourself. To protect from barotrauma, you need to cover your ears with headphones. The next action after the blast wave from the use of nuclear weapons has passed is to find shelter as soon as possible within a minute’s reach. It is necessary to run for shelter taking into account the direction of the wind. If it blows from the epicenter of the explosion, move perpendicularly (left or right) to the direction of the wind. Otherwise, move against the wind. If there is no specially equipped shelter nearby, you need to find a basement or center of a large concrete building with a minimum number of windows and doors.

Prevention Means

The massive amount of destruction, death, injury and disease caused by the use of nuclear weapons at Hiroshima and, three days later, at Nagasaki, was on a scale never before caused by any single weapon.

After 1945, many countries developed nuclear weapons far more powerful than those used against Japanese cities. Concerns about the dire consequences have prompted governments to negotiate arms control. As a result, humanity has the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1963) and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1968). Among military strategists and planners, the presence of these weapons has created a separate discipline with its own internal logic and set of doctrines known as nuclear strategy.

The NST is a Treaty between the United States of America and the russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. This Treaty was first signed in 1991 by the Presidents of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev, and the President of the United States, George Bush, and entered into force on 5 December 1994. In 2021, Vladimir Putin signed a law on the NST extension until 2026, and already on 28 February 2023, he signed another law that terminated russia’s participation in the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty.

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which prohibits development, testing, stockpiling, acquisition, transport and use of nuclear weapons, was adopted on 7 July 2017 at the UN Headquarters in New York. But the Treaty entered into force only in 4 years, on 22 January 2021 – that’s how long it took 50 states to ratify it. Despite unceasing global efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, with the development of nuclear technology, the trend toward nuclear confrontation and nuclear proliferation is becoming more pronounced.

On 17 October 2023, the speaker of the lower house of the state duma of the russian federation announced that russia would withdraw its ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty due to the “irresponsible attitude of the United States to global security”. Although russia is withdrawing its ratification, it will remain a signatory and continue to cooperate with the Test Ban Treaty Organization and the global monitoring system that notifies the world of any tests. And in a week, russia practiced a “massive nuclear attack”. During the military exercises, practical launches of ballistic and cruise missiles took place, the russian ministry of defense reports. The “Yars” intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region at the Kura test site in Kamchatka, while the “Syneva” ballistic missile was launched from the Barents Sea from the Tula nuclear submarine. The test launch of the RSM-56 “Bulava” ballistic missile from the submarine missile cruiser “Borey” ended unsuccessfully, which once again proved its unreliability. On 1 November unsuccessful tests of the intercontinental ballistic missile RS-24 “Yars” took place in russia. According to the DIU of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the “Yars” missile went off course, as it did during the previous command and staff exercises of the strategic nuclear forces of the aggressor state of russia on 25 October 2023.

A nuclear war could cause global climate change and irreparable disruption of the marine environment, affecting agriculture, fisheries and livestock, and ultimately leading to a global food crisis with devastating consequences for the entire world.

Forecasting the Consequences

It is difficult to predict nuclear fallout because it depends on how and where the weapons are used. According to Dylan Spaulding, a senior fellow in the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), weapons that explode at high altitudes have different effects than weapons that explode on the ground or in the soil. “In the latter case, you have to worry about fallout because you’re essentially radioactivating the Earth. While an aerial explosion does not necessarily raise the same concerns about radioactive fallout”.

Dylan Spaulding pointed out that different types of weapons can be detonated for different strategic reasons. For example, detonation of a weapon in the air can kill many people at once, with less long-term radiation effects on the surrounding public and environment. At the same time, detonation of weapons close to the Earth’s surface can also kill many people, but at the same time contaminate the environment and food supplies for many years.

Alex Wellerstein, a historian of science and nuclear weapons at the Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey, created a website called NUKEMAP to do just that. It compares fallout from bombs detonated in the sky with bombs detonated on the ground.

In August, a study published in the Nature Food journal made several predictions about what would happen to the environment, public and world food supplies if russia and the United States started a week-long nuclear war with strategic nuclear weapons.

The authors of the study estimated that 360 million people could die directly from the use of weapons, and two years after such a nuclear war, more than five billion people would be left without food – that’s about 60% of the world’s population. Food supply disruptions will be caused by the huge amount of soot from the fires caused by the explosions.

The researchers also tried to simulate what the destruction would look like in other scenarios. For example, a one-week nuclear war in 2025 between India and Pakistan. The South Asian neighbors possess far fewer nuclear weapons than the US and russia, but the authors still project about 164 million deaths and more than 2.5 billion people without food within two years of such a war.

Alan Robock, a professor of environmental sciences at Rutgers University in the US, was one of the authors of the study published in the Nature journal.

“There is not much chance that a nuclear war can be stopped once it starts. Any use of nuclear weapons could escalate into a full-scale nuclear war and lead to a nuclear winter”, Roebok said in an interview with DW.

The Editorial Board of the Uatom.org website